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The Latin America Brief

Issue #17 · Friday, October 23, 2026 · 4-min read

Top stories

Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro 47%, Lula 46%, Tied at 50% of Valid Votes

Three days before Sunday's runoff, a Datafolha poll commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo puts Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 47% and Lula (PT) at 46%, a technical tie; in valid votes, the measure the electoral court uses, each has 50%. Blank or null votes are 5% and 2% are undecided. The previous two Datafolha rounds had Lula at 45%, and Flávio at 47% on Oct. 15 and 49% on Oct. 8. Rejection is now 46% for Flávio (from 44%) and 45% for Lula (from 46%), and 94% say their choice is final. Approval of the government edged up to 49% against 48% disapproval, numerically ahead for the first time since July, per G1. Datafolha interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16+ on Oct. 20–22 (margin ±2 points, registration BR-09709/2026). Quaest on Wednesday had Flávio 45%, Lula 44%.

Sources: G1 · ES/PT  |  InfoMoney · ES/PT  |  UOL / AFP · ES/PT

Ecuador Arrests Two-Time Presidential Candidate Luisa González in Money-Laundering Case

Police and prosecutors detained Luisa González, the Revolución Ciudadana candidate who lost the 2023 and 2025 presidential races, before dawn Thursday in Canuto, Manabí. The Attorney General's Office said three people were held in Pichincha and Manabí for charges of alleged money laundering in a case it calls "Laberinto," which examines the financing of 2023 campaign advertising, where a web of companies allegedly channeled about US$500,000. El Universo reported that investigators link the scheme to companies tied to Guayaquil mayor Aquiles Alvarez. González called the accusation "absurd" and political persecution; her party called the arrest arbitrary and unconstitutional. The charging hearing opened in Quito near midnight after a failed first attempt, per Primicias; its outcome had not been reported at press time.

Sources: AP (Spanish) · ES/PT  |  El Universo · ES/PT  |  Primicias · ES/PT

Venezuelans March for an Election Date as Government–Opposition Talks End Third Round

Supporters of María Corina Machado's Vente Venezuela and the Comando Con Venezuela rallied Thursday in Caracas and other cities, demanding an electoral timetable with a 2027 presidential vote, Machado's return and the release of political prisoners. The date marked three years since the 2023 opposition primary she won. In Caracas, organizers moved the rally to the Central University after a pro-government march gathered at Plaza Venezuela. Vente said police later detained seven sound-truck workers and seized three vehicles. The day before, the government and the opposition delegation from the 2015 National Assembly closed a third round of talks; opposition negotiator Dinorah Figuera said they agreed to review laws on public protest, political disqualifications and terrorism, but El País reported no concrete measures. The next round is planned for November.

Sources: CNN en Español · ES/PT  |  El Nacional · ES/PT  |  El Diario · ES/PT  |  El País · ES/PT

Region roundup

Electoral Court Gives Meta 24 Hours to Report on the 'Exército do Lula' Channel

Superior Electoral Court (TSE) president Kassio Nunes Marques granted a request from Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign and gave Meta 24 hours to deliver a technical report on the "Exército do Lula" WhatsApp channel, run by deputy André Janones. Meta must examine possible coordinated behavior between accounts and channels, engagement patterns, content traceability and paid activity. Google and X must say whether they detected coordinated hashtag campaigns. Flávio's lawyers argued Meta had told the campaign it found no irregularities without saying what criteria or period it checked. The move comes a day after Lula's campaign asked the same court to strip Flávio's ticket over Meta's algorithms.

Sources: Agência Brasil · ES/PT  |  G1 · ES/PT  |  O Globo · ES/PT

Peso Weakens for a Fifth Day as BCRA Steps Up Dollar Buying

The wholesale dollar closed Thursday at ARS 1,528 (+0.13%), its fifth straight rise and ARS 10 higher on the week. The central bank bought US$61 million, up from US$46 million on Wednesday, extending its buying streak to 18 sessions; October purchases reached US$1,210 million, per Ámbito (BAE Negocios puts it at US$1,211 million). Gross reserves still fell US$59 million to US$50,166 million. The wholesale rate sits ARS 414.50 below the top of the official band (ARS 1,942.50), per BAE.

Sources: Ámbito · ES/PT  |  BAE Negocios · ES/PT  |  C5N · ES/PT

Mexico's Inflation Accelerates to 3.62% in Early October

Consumer prices rose 0.41% in the first half of October, lifting annual inflation to 3.62% from 3.49% in the second half of September, INEGI data show, the third straight acceleration per El Economista. Core inflation, the gauge Banxico watches, was 3.78% (3.71% previously), and non-core 3.08%. The biggest push came from electricity, up 18.51% over the fortnight as summer power-tariff subsidies ended, followed by airfares (+14.77%) and green tomatoes (+22.07%). Bloomberg Línea said the headline figure beat the 3.59% analysts expected, as some Banxico board members weigh a rate cut. Inflation remains inside the central bank's 3% ±1 point range.

Sources: Banxico / INEGI data · ES/PT  |  El Economista · ES/PT  |  Bloomberg Línea · ES/PT

Peru Plans S/18 Billion Stimulus Against El Niño, Raising 2027 Deficit Target to 2.4%

President Keiko Fujimori and Economy Minister Elmer Cuba announced a countercyclical package to cushion El Niño, higher fuel prices and global interest rates. The government will change fiscal rules to allow a 2.4% deficit, freeing an extra S/18,000 million for 2027, per Perú21: S/2,500 million in temporary cash transfers to vulnerable families, S/2,000 million for maintenance of schools, clinics, police stations and roads, S/500 million in fuel subsidies and S/13,000 million for infrastructure, including finishing stalled works. Cuba said pensioner payments would start in December and most of the investment from January 2027. The state news agency Andina said the plan rests on Peru's macro fundamentals and higher tax revenue. Separately, the Senate approved delegated legislative powers for the executive with 35 votes, per Perú21.

Sources: Andina · ES/PT  |  Perú21 · ES/PT

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