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The Latin America Brief

Issue #19 · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 5-min read

Top stories

Brazil Votes Today as Final Datafolha and Quaest Polls Both Show Flávio 51%, Lula 49%

The last surveys before Sunday's presidential runoff, released Saturday, show a technical tie. Datafolha (4,050 interviews, Oct. 23–24, margin ±2 points) and Quaest (3,702 interviews, same dates, ±2 points) both put Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 51% of valid votes and President Lula (PT) at 49%. In total votes, Datafolha has Flávio 48% to Lula 47%, and Quaest 46% to 45%. Datafolha's previous round, on Oct. 22, had the two at 50% each. AtlasIntel/Bloomberg showed 50.8% to 49.2% (±1 point) and BTG/Nexus 50.5% to 49.5%. Valid votes exclude blank and null ballots, the measure the TSE uses for the official result. In the Oct. 4 first round, Flávio took 47.03% and Lula 45.16%.

Sources: UOL · ES/PT  |  CBN / O Globo · ES/PT  |  G1 · ES/PT

Lula Closes His Campaign on Avenida Paulista; Flávio Ends in Rio's Barra da Tijuca

On Saturday, the last day street campaigning was allowed, Lula walked with supporters on Copacabana beach in the morning and closed his campaign in an open car on São Paulo's Avenida Paulista, alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, Fernando Haddad and Simone Tebet. Lula, 80, called it the biggest political rally of his life; his campaign put attendance at two million, while Reuters noted there was no official police estimate. In a brief speech he said Brazilians want "structural change" and that his opponent represents "regression." Flávio Bolsonaro led a motorcycle rally in Belo Horizonte with São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, then closed with the "Bloco do 22" in Barra da Tijuca, his family's stronghold in Rio. O Globo reported Flávio planned to vote early Sunday in Vila Isabel, Rio, and then fly to Brasília for the count.

Sources: Metrópoles · ES/PT  |  Reuters (via UOL) · ES/PT  |  O Globo · ES/PT  |  R7 · ES/PT  |  O Globo (vote plans) · ES/PT

Israel Denies Report That Netanyahu Shifted Toward Argentina on the Falklands; UK Presses Chile

The Telegraph reported Saturday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had authorised support for Argentina's position on the Falklands/Malvinas. Israel's Foreign Ministry said there had been "no change" in its position, and its embassy in London denied that any such instruction existed. Separately, Downing Street said UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Chile's President José Antonio Kast in a Friday phone call that Britain wants the islanders to keep the ability to exercise their right to self-determination; the two leaders also agreed to work together to modernise defence capabilities and deepen trade. EFE reported that Burnham also raised the islanders' right to develop their natural resources, in reference to the Sea Lion oil project, in a call with President Donald Trump. Kast has previously backed Argentina's sovereignty claim.

Sources: The Telegraph  |  Ynet  |  JNS  |  Infobae / EFE · ES/PT  |  CNN Chile · ES/PT

Region roundup

Mexico's Electoral Chief Taddei Refuses to Resign as Contract Probe Grows; Sheinbaum Says 'No Corruption in the 4T'

Guadalupe Taddei, president of the National Electoral Institute (INE), told fellow councillors she will not step down, Infobae reported, despite questions over contracts awarded to a supplier and an inquiry opened by the Federal Audit Office (ASF). The PRI and Somos parties have asked her to step aside temporarily during the investigation, and the INE presidency said Saturday it would cooperate with the ASF. Asked in Apatzingán, Michoacán, on Saturday whether she knew of a resignation, President Claudia Sheinbaum said "No," and repeated: "We don't want corruption in the fourth transformation." Infobae noted that, short of resignation, removal would require impeachment (juicio político) or the lifting of immunity in the Chamber of Deputies.

Sources: El Universal · ES/PT  |  Infobae · ES/PT  |  Récord · ES/PT

IMF's Nigel Chalk: Fund Financing Would Be 'One More Element' of Colombia's Broader Strategy

In an interview published Sunday by El Tiempo, the IMF's Western Hemisphere director said Colombia's fiscal trajectory "is not on a sustainable path and decisive action is needed." Chalk said the Fund can combine policy advice, technical assistance and, when requested and appropriate, financial support, and that any financing "would be one more element of a broader financing strategy" that could also help mobilise other official sources. He said there are no predetermined deadlines and that specific measures and the design of any programme remain subject to technical talks, so it would be premature to speak of an agreement. El Tiempo notes the 2027 budget foresees US$25 billion in external borrowing and that a third IMF meeting with the government is expected in Bogotá in November. In an Oct. 18 interview with El Espectador, Chalk estimated this year's deficit at around 7% of GDP.

Sources: El Tiempo · ES/PT  |  El Espectador · ES/PT

Colombia Vows to Step Up Pacific Operations After a Dissident Drone Attack Kills a Marine in Guapi

Professional marine Edwin Andrés Vargas Londoño, 23, was killed and a petty officer and three marines were wounded when explosives were dropped from a drone on a Navy river checkpoint on the Guapi River in Cauca on Friday. The Navy and the Defense Ministry attributed the attack to the FARC dissidents' 30th Front 'Jhonier Toro Arenas.' On Saturday the ministry called it a violation of international humanitarian law and said it would "intensify military operations along the entire Pacific coast" to find those responsible. The wounded were airlifted to Cali.

Sources: El Tiempo · ES/PT  |  Caracol Radio · ES/PT  |  AP (Spanish) · ES/PT

Machado's Party Launches 'Constructores,' a Registry of Venezuelans at Home and Abroad Ahead of Any Election

Vente Venezuela, María Corina Machado's party, launched the digital platform Constructores on Saturday to locate Venezuelans inside and outside the country and update their data so they can register to vote before "a new National Electoral Council," with no presidential election yet called. Participants enter their name and ID number and pass a biometric check; the party says it is open to adults of any political view, does not imply party membership, and that its structures will not have access to the data. A first phase includes a location-and-family-ties study and a study of deceased Venezuelans. The opposition has long said diaspora voters were blocked from registering.

Sources: Infobae / EFE · ES/PT  |  El Nacional · ES/PT  |  Vente Venezuela · ES/PT

Milei Denies a Rift With Bullrich, Calls Himself 'Super Calm' About 2027 Re-election

In a radio interview Saturday, President Javier Milei denied an internal dispute with Senator Patricia Bullrich, calling her "a soldier of this government" and one of the movement's leading figures. Asked whether she could be his running mate in 2027, he said: "I'm not discussing that yet. It's not the time," adding that electoral strategy belongs to the political committee. Milei said he is "super calm" about re-election — "I don't see Argentines voting backwards" — and projected that a second win could bring country risk to 200 basis points and growth of 7% to 8%.

Sources: Ámbito · ES/PT  |  Infobae · ES/PT  |  BAE Negocios · ES/PT

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