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The Latin America Brief

Issue #20 · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 3-min read

Top stories

Lula Wins a Fourth Term, Beating Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21% After Trailing in the First Round

With 100% of 499,248 polling sections counted, President Lula (PT) received 64,256,232 votes (51.79% of valid votes) to 59,826,041 (48.21%) for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to TSE data. In the Oct. 4 first round Flávio led with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%. G1 reports Lula added 10.3 million votes between rounds, more than the 9.3 million won by all eliminated first-round candidates combined, and abstention fell to 19.21%, the lowest in a presidential runoff in 20 years. The TSE declared the result at 9:08 p.m. Brasília time.

Sources: G1 · ES/PT  |  G1 (vote comparison) · ES/PT  |  Exame (TSE data) · ES/PT

Flávio Refuses to Concede and Will Seek to Annul the Vote; TSE Chief Says the Extended Voting Changed Nothing

Flávio Bolsonaro said it was "impossible" to recognize the result and that his legal team would ask for the election to be annulled, targeting Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin's unprecedented order extending voting by two hours, until 7 p.m., in sections still open at 5 p.m. Both campaigns had asked the TSE for extensions: the PT nationwide over transport problems, the PL in municipalities of five states over rain and power outages. TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques said "there was no alteration" from the court order, and ministers told UOL and SBT News they see no grounds for annulment. Eduardo Bolsonaro posted a video alleging fraud, without evidence, G1 reported.

Sources: Folha · ES/PT  |  JC / UOL · ES/PT  |  UOL · ES/PT  |  G1 · ES/PT

María Corina Machado Returns to Venezuela After 10 Months Abroad and Reaches Caracas by Caravan

The opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace laureate reappeared Sunday at Mass in Lara state, then travelled by road through Yaracuy, Carabobo and Aragua to Caracas, arriving late at night as thousands lined the route. "I am here. With you," she wrote on X. She had left the country in December to collect the Nobel in Oslo; her team says seven earlier attempts to return were blocked. BBC, citing Reuters sources, says she flew privately from Panama to Colombia and crossed the border by land. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio linked her return to U.S.-backed talks between the interim government and the opposition, calling them "the best chance Venezuela has had in thirty years" for a free and fair election.

Sources: BBC  |  BBC Mundo · ES/PT  |  EFE · ES/PT  |  The Manila Times

Region roundup

Sheinbaum, Kast, Peña and Fujimori Congratulate Lula; Milei Stays Silent

Leaders of Mexico, Chile, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Uruguay, Panama, Ecuador, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic and Cuba congratulated Lula on X, Bloomberg Línea reported. Chile's José Antonio Kast said he had spoken with Lula and that the two countries would work on economic integration and fighting organized crime. As of early Monday, Argentina's Javier Milei, who had backed Flávio Bolsonaro, had not commented; officials told TN "we have to wait" for the president. Colombia's President Abelardo de la Espriella had also not commented, EFE reported, while Gustavo Petro celebrated the result on X.

Sources: Bloomberg Línea · ES/PT  |  Infobae · ES/PT  |  Canal 26 · ES/PT  |  EFE via eju.tv · ES/PT

Argentina's 12-Month Exports Top US$100 Billion for the First Time, With a Record US$26.5 Billion Surplus

Exports from October 2025 to September 2026 reached US$100.845 billion and the trade surplus US$26.472 billion, both records for a 12-month window, according to consultancy Quantum, citing INDEC data. September exports were US$10.036 billion, the highest monthly figure in INDEC's series, against imports of US$7.060 billion. January–September exports rose 21.6% year on year, on prices up 10.9% and volumes up 9.3%, led by energy from Vaca Muerta, while imports fell 2.5%. Quantum noted that falling imports of capital goods may signal weak investment.

Sources: Ámbito · ES/PT  |  Infobae · ES/PT  |  C5N · ES/PT

Colombia's Mining Agency Drafts a List of 28 Strategic Minerals, Adding Rare Earths

A draft resolution from the National Mining Agency (ANM), posted for public comment, would identify 28 strategic minerals, including rare-earth elements, copper, lithium, graphite, niobium-tantalum, molybdenum and manganese, and would repeal Resolution 1006 of 2023, which stays in force until then. El Tiempo reports experts warn Colombia has not studied its rare-earth deposits in depth and lacks the industry to refine them at scale.

Sources: El Tiempo · ES/PT  |  ANM draft resolution · ES/PT

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